Now that Republicans control all branches of the federal government, their base is going to expect them to make good on their promises. However, what we're already seeing is that political rhetoric that helps get you elected isn't the same thing as actual reality. It's going to be interesting to see GOP rhetoric collide with the hard, cold facts of reality in the next few months, and nowhere is this more true than on the issue of healthcare reform.

Republicans have already started to realize that their campaign rhetoric isn't reality, moving quickly from "repeal and replace" to "repeal and delay." There's a reason for this, and the reason is they can't agree among themselves what to replace Obamacare with -- because they are scared of seeing headlines such as: "Millions Will Lose Coverage Under GOP Plan," or, perhaps, "GOP Plan Will Blow $10 Trillion Hole In Budget."

Let's run down the core Republican rhetoric, and introduce some reality to the picture. Picture one of those period pieces on Masterpiece Theater: "Republican Rhetoric, may I introduce you to Mr. Reality? Mr. Reality, meet Rhetoric."

GOP Rhetoric: Everybody hates Obamacare, therefore getting rid of it will be very politically popular.

Reality: While the GOP has successfully demonized the term "Obamacare," when you ask people about the component parts, most of them are wildly popular -- even with Republican voters.

Republicans have convinced themselves that Obamacare is a total disaster, a total failure, and none of it works at all. Obamacare has ruined millions of lives, they tell themselves. The reality is that pretty much all the components of Obamacare (with the possible exception being the individual mandate) have been improving lives for millions.

Insurance companies can no longer drop you when you get sick. They also cannot slap a lifetime ceiling on what they will pay out. They cannot refuse insurance because of pre-existing conditions. Children get to stay on their parents' insurance until they are 26. Insurance companies have to spend 80 cents of every dollar on actual health care now, instead of being free to rake in as much profit as possible. Preventative care is now free.

Each and every one of those things poll extremely well with the public -- even in deep red states. Getting rid of any or all of them is not going to be politically popular at all. Donald Trump and the GOP have convinced themselves that they can keep all the goodies and get rid of the bad parts, but the problem with that scenario is that the numbers just don't add up. Rhetoric, meet reality. The "bad" parts of Obamacare mean the good parts are possible. Wishing this reality didn't exist isn't a real plan of action, and Republicans are beginning to realize this.

GOP Rhetoric: We are fiscal hawks on the budget, and want to balance the budget so we don't add to the national debt.

Reality: Obamacare saves the federal government money. Lots of money, in fact. Repealing it therefore means increasing the deficit and adding trillions to the debt.

This is the first bit of rhetoric that is going to be obliterated by reality. Republicans are supposed to be the ones who care deeply about reducing deficits and the national debt. However, this has always meant "Republicans care deeply about reducing deficits when Democrats are in power." In reality, they actually love deficit spending when they are driving the bus -- because then it is ideologically pure deficit spending.

Obamacare saves between nine and ten trillion dollars over the next decade. Repealing it means that money won't be saved, it'll have to be spent. Now, Trump himself isn't all that big a deficit hawk (he's proposed a huge infrastructure spending plan, for instance), but the GOP is. Since they cannot square the circle of "Obamacare saves money, repealing it will cost money," they will go to their always-handy fallback plan: "We don't care."

This one is amusing because it involves two pieces of Republican rhetoric colliding with each other, which (like in an atom smasher) will obliterate at least one of them. Repealing Obamacare's going to blow a hole in the deficit? Then we'll just stop pretending we are fiscal hawks that particular week -- easy!

GOP Rhetoric: Replacing Obamacare with a Republican plan will be easy.

Reality: No, it won't.

This one is pretty obvious. Republicans have had roughly seven years to come up with their own plan. What have they accomplished in all this time? They have put forward zero bills and have only managed a bullet-point list comprised of nothing but rhetoric and wishful thinking.

If Republicans had been smart, they would have passed (or at least proposed) some actual "replace" legislation before Obamacare went into effect. That way, they could have made the argument that their plan was superior to Obamacare because they would have been free to demonize Obamacare as a disaster of epic proportions before anyone got any actual benefits. They did not do so. Now, people are getting benefits from Obamacare, so whatever plan the Republicans come up with has to be as good or better than the actual reality of Obamacare.

Health care reform is complicated. It affects millions of lives. Now that Obamacare's been in effect for a number of years, people are getting benefits from it. Repealing it means taking away actual benefits rather than some straw-man apocalyptic fantasy. So Republicans now face the prospect of headlines pointing out that their plan is measurably worse than what people have now. If replacing Obamacare was so easy, why hasn't it happened yet? Because it's not, that's why.

GOP Rhetoric: Republicans can do a better job of health reform, built on sound conservative principles.

Reality: The math, unfortunately, just doesn't add up.

There's a big reason why no actual "replace" bill has ever been voted on in either house of Congress. The reason is that when bills are introduced, they are "scored." The Congressional Budget Office runs the numbers and informs Congress (and the people) what the effect of the legislation will be. This includes the effect on the budget, and also things like how many people will either gain or lose coverage.

Republicans, to be blunt, are terrified of what those numbers are going to show, on any of their replacement plans. That's why they haven't agreed among themselves on actual legislation. They're afraid of the political blowback. They have good reason to be afraid, because it is very likely that the numbers are going to plainly show that millions are going to lose coverage under any Republican replacement plan.

Think about it -- why are Republicans now attempting "repeal and delay" in the first place? How long will that delay be? Some want to kick the issue beyond the 2018 midterm elections, and some want to kick the ball all the way past the 2020 election. Why? Because they're scared of how the voters are going react. Plain and simple.

If the Republican plan actually worked and was actually better than Obamacare, then they would eagerly be rushing to pass it now. Or they would have already passed it (they've had seven years to do so, remember). The political timidity of "repeal and delay" ("Maybe we'll get around to it in three or four years, trust us") proves nothing so much as political fear on their part.

If they actually had a plan that was the best thing since sliced bread, then they'd be touting it to the skies and have it ready to pass on the same day they repealed Obamacare. They don't have a plan like that, because a plan like that does not exist and never will.

Paul Ryan swears he's going to have an actual "replace" bill this year. Forgive me if I have my doubts, because he said exactly the same thing last year, and no bill appeared (instead, he came up with that smoke-and-mirrors list of bullet points -- and even that was a heavy lift among his own caucus).

Instead, Republicans are going to enact the Underpants Gnome Theory Of Governing, by repealing a law they have no idea how to replace. This theory (which I explained roughly a year ago in great detail) goes like this: "(1.) Repeal Obamacare. (2.) ?? (3.) Everything will be wonderful." No, seriously, that's their plan. That's the only plan they've got. If they go ahead with Phase One, we'll be stuck in Phase Two ("??") forever, because Republicans will remain terrified at having any actual bill scored -- and letting the public see how much worse their plan will actually be.

Conclusion

There's really only one way out of the mess Republicans are creating for themselves, but I doubt they'll actually take the only exit ramp available (for ideological reasons). The only possible answer to the problem of Republican math just not adding up would be if they decided to only make very minor changes to the core of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Tinker around the edges a bit, throw in a few conservative bugaboos (tort reform, for instance), and then sit back and declare the whole thing totally different and not like Obamacare at all. Rebrand it "Trumpcare" (that one seems inevitable), pass it, and then loudly proclaim to the public that Trumpcare is a thousand times better than Obamacare (even though it's essentially the same thing). Because the core of the law will be preserved, the numbers will actually compare favorably to Obamacare -- why wouldn't they, if it's essentially the same thing?

That's really the only political answer I can come up with, but as I said I seriously doubt Republicans will be smart enough to seize it. In keeping with this article's title, I would call it: "Since you can't change reality, drastically change your rhetoric, declare victory, and move on."

Democrats already seem ready for this fight. Chuck Schumer unveiled a dandy slogan to ridicule Republicans with, while they struggle with reality smacking them in the face this year: "Make America sick again." Any Republican plan that actually gets scored by the C.B.O. and shows millions losing their health insurance is going to be fair game for that brilliant bit of political spin, that's for sure.

Republicans have been fearmongering Obamacare since before it actually existed (remember the "death panel" nonsense?). Their rhetoric has been soaring along on the breeze for eight years now. However (to mix metaphors a bit), the ball is now squarely in their court. It is "put up or shut up" time. This is going to be painful for the Republican Party, since they've fallen into the trap of believing their own spin. Because now it is -- quite simply -- time for them to face reality.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant