A major geopolitical goal is now in sight, and should arrive within months if not weeks. The Islamic State is about to become stateless. They are about to lose the last shreds of territory they still control in Iraq and Syria, forcing their transformation into a stateless terrorist network (like Al Qaeda) or even their total collapse. Because their self-proclaimed "caliphate" is about to disappear.

In their heyday, the Islamic State controlled territory from the outskirts of Baghdad all the way to the Turkish border with Syria. They held oil fields that financed their operation to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars and they ruled a large territory they had taken in blitzkrieg fashion. But their expansion finally came to a halt, and they started a long losing streak to multiple other armed forces. This losing streak continues uninterrupted, and is now almost complete. Since early 2015, the Islamic State has steadily been losing territory and has only managed to regain a town once (soon to lose it again), when they fought with the Syrian army over Palmyra. Other than that short-termed success, the Islamic State has lost almost everything it once held.

As you can currently see on the war maps for Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State (in black, on the maps), now only holds a short stretch of two rivers. Their territory straddles the Iraq/Syria border, but they're being pushed back from all sides. The final battles against the group will likely take place close to the border.

The final push began by kicking the Islamic State out of Mosul, in Iraq, and Raqqa, in Syria. The fight for Raqqa is not complete, as there is still a small section of town held by Islamic State forces, but the outcome is not in question. In Syria, the Kurdish forces and the Syrian army has held a fragile truce over fighting between each other, while the battle against the Islamic State continues. The Kurds still hold Tabqa and Manbij, but once the Islamic State is dealt with the government forces may try to push the Kurds out. But no matter what happens afterward, the Kurds from the north of the Euphrates River and the government forces to the south have been steadily pushing down the river valley. Currently, the town of Deir ez-Zor is the main battle, but both the Kurds and the Syrians have also continued to retake towns past the main fight. On the tributary Nahr al Khabur, the Kurds had been dug in with the Islamic State just outside Al Fadghami for years, but have recently been on the move southward. The Kurds will likely take all the land north of the confluence of the two rivers (north of Al Busayrah), leaving the rest for the government forces to take. Other than a few tiny pockets elsewhere in Syria, the Islamic State's last stand will likely happen in one of the towns close to the Iraqi border, perhaps Abu Kamal.

In Iraq, the rout of the Islamic State has been even more impressive. Mosul was a long bloody fight, but was finally retaken after months of battle. Since that time, three of the four remaining Islamic State areas have been cleared out by the Iraqi armed forces: Tal Afar, Hawija, and the towns south of the road through Sinjar. Other than the deep desert (where the Islamic State may continue to hang on, even after their total defeat elsewhere), this leaves only a short stretch of the Euphrates River valley ending at the Syrian border. Iraqi forces have moved out from Haditha and have already taken Anah, in a slow push north. However, government forces just finished cleaning out all the towns surrounding Hawija (further east), meaning they will now be free to move to the final battle to push the Islamic State out of Iraq.

The only real question for the near future is whether Iraq or Syria will accomplish the complete rout of the Islamic State on their territory first. Iraq seems most likely, at this point, but the Syrian fighting has been moving pretty quickly, too.

Of course, even evicting the Islamic State from all its territory in Iraq and Syria doesn't necessarily mean the end of the Islamic State organization. But they will be denied safe haven, and they will be denied the vast majority of their former income. They will be diminished, even if they don't completely disappear. And since a major draw for the group was that they were the only ones bold enough to proclaim a new caliphate and try to take and hold as much territory as they could, it remains to be seen whether they'll continue to entice new recruits now that this experiment has utterly failed. Or maybe they'll just change their name to something less ambitious than the "Islamic State."

Geographic victory over the Islamic State isn't going to end conflicts on both sides of the border, either. It's anyone's guess what will happen next in Iraq. If the central government does not attempt to bridge the Sunni/Shi'ite divide, then sectarian violence of one sort or another is almost guaranteed for the future. Iraq's Kurds have now voted to secede from Iraq, which might spark a civil war of another sort immediately after the Islamic State is vanquished. And, as you can easily see from the number of colors required on that Syrian war map, removing one army from the field isn't going to end the war, it will merely rearrange the other forces temporarily.

Even having said all of that, though, making the Islamic State stateless is a big achievement. It may not solve any of the struggles that will continue in both Iraq and Syria, but it will have removed a particularly lethal player from the field in both. In various places, this has been achieved by the United States, the Iraqi government, the Syrian (Assad) government, Russia, the Kurds, Iranian-backed militia forces, and Syrian freedom fighters. That's a strange collection of allies, to be sure, but it's not like they were fighting shoulder-to-shoulder on any one battlefield. Each decided, for its own reasons, that taking out the Islamic State was a higher priority than their other military troubles, which brought a unique focus to the fight.

That fight is almost over. It has been a huge success, measured in ground taken and the Islamic State's statehood denied. Proclaiming the end of the Islamic State will likely be premature, but denying them all of their safe haven is enough of an accomplishment for now. Whether it takes weeks or a few more months, though, that end is now clearly in sight.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant